Oil prices now the strongest growth headwind

Last week’s warning from the International Energy Agency (IEA) that the surging cost of oil now represented a bigger risk for global growth than the European sovereign debt and banking crisis did not generate the publicity it deserved. Brent crude has jumped by 17% this year to USD 126 a barrel, essentially matching the high…

30 Mar @ 15:19

Tough times for the Aussie

There can be little question that the cycle has turned for the Aussie. In 2009 and 2010, it seemed as though the Australian currency could do no wrong. Last year, the AUD still attracted a great deal of buying interest from multiple sources, especially those who were concerned by the deliberate debasement of the major…

22 Mar @ 14:16

The boom in German house prices

There are always winners in every crisis. In this instance, one of the big beneficiaries of Europe’s sovereign debt and banking debacle has been German house prices, which have been moving steadily higher over the past couple of years. Flush with deposits sent from Europe’s troubled south, financial institutions in the north have been desperate…

22 Mar @ 14:14

China’s growing pains

Notwithstanding the general mood of optimism apparent in risk assets these days, there is a growing school of considered opinion which believes that China is heading directly for a hard landing. Complicating the compilation of evidence to support this view is the fact that the Lunar New Year holidays were earlier than usual this year,…

15 Mar @ 15:51

The vulnerability of gold

Gold bulls are starting to shiver and shake, with the price down another 2% today to USD 1,643 an ounce. At the end of last month, it was close to USD 1,800; six months ago, it was touching USD 1,900. So, what is going wrong? Is this the end of the bull cycle, or simply…

14 Mar @ 19:03

Total wipeout

The deal is done, credit default swaps are likely to be activated and in one fell swoop Greece’s debt mountain has been cut by EUR 100bln. But what’s the outlook for Greece now and does this mean the worst is over in terms of the debt situation? The good news is that, in activating the…

12 Mar @ 18:54

RBA refuses to countenance Aussie FX intervention

Excessive currency strength has become a tremendous policy vexation for some central banks over the past couple of years. In Japan, the BoJ’s FX-intervention war-chest is now monumental, such is the concern in Tokyo regarding the negative impact which an overvalued yen poses to the economy. Recently, the BoJ significantly expanded its asset-purchases program and…

07 Mar @ 18:36

China’s subtle shift

On the face of it, China’s revision of its growth target was an expected and relatively small change, but this is China we are talking about, so any shift in stance cannot be ignored. The move to target growth of 7.5%, rather than 8.0%, really reflects the official sanctioning of what has been desired for…

06 Mar @ 13:13

The ECB’s LTRO dilemma

The ECB’s auction of 3Y funds back in December has been credited with any number of things, from staving off a full-scale credit crunch in the eurozone to helping the rally in peripheral bond markets and also supporting the best start to the year for world stock markets for 15 years. Next week the ECB…

24 Feb @ 15:13

Political instability down under could rock the Aussie

Last night’s resignation by Foreign Minister (and ex-Prime Minister) Kevin Rudd has further inflamed political tensions within his Labour Party over who should lead it into the next election. After weeks of intense speculation surrounding her leadership, current Prime Minister Julia Gillard expressed her disappointment at Rudd’s decision, which the latter claimed had resulted from…

22 Feb @ 16:24

Economic Indicators in Fundamental Analysis

Atlanta Fed Index Atlanta Fed (one of 12 regional Feds) sends a questionnaire to 500 industrial companies to ask them about their business forecasts, order books and stocks. It calculates an indicator that is published monthly, around the middle of months which provides information on economic developments in an important region of the United States…

21 Feb @ 12:54

Fundamental Analysis

The study of specific factors, such as wars, discoveries, and changes in government policy, influence the supply and demand, and are therefore taken into account by the markets. Fundamental analysis involves the examination of macroeconomic indicators, markets, investments and political considerations in assessing the currency of a country and comparing it to others. Macroeconomic indicators…

21 Feb @ 12:48

Technical analysis

Technical analysis is the study of market trends, mainly with the use of graphics in order to anticipate future trends in prices. Technical analysis is complementary to fundamental analysis which has a more macro and micro focus in its forecasts. Technical analysis is the study of graphs in order to anticipate future trends in prices….

21 Feb @ 12:47

Japanese Candlesticks

Japanese candlesticks (or candlesticks) are considered to be the result of a collective and successive development, but none is certain in which time period they were actually invented. The Japanese have been using technical analysis from the seventeenth century, in rice trade and the idea of candlesticks is often linked to an eighteenth century, legendary…

21 Feb @ 12:46

Forex Bulletproof

Forex Bulletproof focuses more on money management strategy to enable traders to gain a long term income.

18 Feb @ 20:58

Forex Megadroid

Forex Megadriod robot is developed to make profits in every single market condition.

18 Feb @ 20:57

Leo Trader Pro

LEO Trader Pro is a handsfree 100% automatic robot that claims to generate 4.89% profits per day to up to 113.2% profits in a month.

18 Feb @ 20:52

Iran is rattling a lot of cages

Against a varied group of nations intent on denying it nuclear capability, Iran has at its disposal what is arguably an even more potent weapon – the price of oil. But in this high-stakes game the cost to either side of getting what it wants is astronomically high. The US has imposed crippling oil-related and…

17 Feb @ 20:49

Aussie slides despite jobs surprise

An unexpected 46.3K increase in Australian employment last month provided the Aussie with a lift overnight, but unfortunately this has proved fleeting. Closer examination of the jobs release suggested that the labour market’s underbelly remains weak. Firstly, January is invariably a particularly difficult month for the statisticians in terms of making the correct seasonal adjustments…

16 Feb @ 18:51

Asia’s increased resilience

Spending a few days in Asia is focusing my mind on the extent to which this region can detach itself from what is going on in Europe. It has successfully de-coupled from problems elsewhere (in 2007-08), but does the water that has passed under the bridge since then make Asia more resilient or more vulnerable…

16 Feb @ 18:49