• 04 May @ 09:44

    Simon Smith, Chief Economist ends the week with a look at the euro,
    pressured by this week’s poor PMI data, the RBA’s cut to it’s growth
    and inflation forecaset and looks ahead to today’s US payrolls figures.

  • 28 Mar @ 10:26

    The process of covering the mountain of record euro short positions which commenced in earnest during February has continued during the current month. That said, judging by the extent of short positions still being held by traders and hedge fund managers, we could yet see more of this type of activity in the weeks ahead…

  • 27 Mar @ 11:05

    The Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) technical analysis indicator describes when a market is trending or not trending and it can produce buy and sell signals when combined with the DMI+ plus and DMI- minus the ADX. The main use of the ADX is to establish if a stock, future, or currency pair is trending…

  • 26 Mar @ 13:25

    Evident over the course of the first quarter of 2012 is growing concern that China’s soft landing might be rather more turbulent than expected. Unsurprisingly, commodity-related investments have started to under-perform, with resource stocks losing favour and high-beta currencies like the Aussie under-performing. Attracting rather less attention is the deteriorating financial predicament in the world’s…

  • 22 Mar @ 14:16

    There can be little question that the cycle has turned for the Aussie. In 2009 and 2010, it seemed as though the Australian currency could do no wrong. Last year, the AUD still attracted a great deal of buying interest from multiple sources, especially those who were concerned by the deliberate debasement of the major…

  • 14 Mar @ 19:12

    As investors and traders gradually cast off their collective fear about Europe imploding, Greece defaulting and China decelerating, a very significant asset allocation-shift is being unleashed. The avoidance of risk in the second half of last year and the excessive rush into the safety of cash and hard currency sovereign bonds is progressively being unwound….

  • 14 Mar @ 19:07

    Whilst the traditional risk currencies are getting a beating this month, it’s notable that sterling has been holding up well. We noted some of the better data being recorded on the domestic economy yesterday (‘Green shoots in the UK’), but this does not help explain the resilience being seen today given that the labour market…

  • 12 Mar @ 19:01

    A supplementary analysis conducted by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has shown that foreign exchange remains a booming asset class. According to its latest survey, trading in global currency markets may have reached a record USD 5 trillion a day last September, before declining significantly late in 2011 and into the early months of…

  • 12 Mar @ 18:58

    Because of the distortions imposed by the early Lunar New Year celebrations this year, some caution is warranted when responding to last night’s news that the trade deficit for February was the highest since 1990. In the first two months of 2012, exports rose by less than 7% vs. the comparable period of last year,…

  • 08 Mar @ 11:16

    Michael Derks, Chief Strategist, on a day when the markets are holding their breath in anticipation of the Greek PSI bond-swap deal

  • 07 Mar @ 18:36

    Excessive currency strength has become a tremendous policy vexation for some central banks over the past couple of years. In Japan, the BoJ’s FX-intervention war-chest is now monumental, such is the concern in Tokyo regarding the negative impact which an overvalued yen poses to the economy. Recently, the BoJ significantly expanded its asset-purchases program and…

  • 02 Mar @ 18:03

    The Brazilian real has been the standout of the majors so far this year, but understandably the authorities are getting uncomfortable with the pace of appreciation seen, especially given the slowing in the domestic economy. The real was up 8.7% vs. the USD in the first two months of the year in spot terms, but…

  • 02 Mar @ 09:57

    Simon Smith rounds off the week with a look at the Greece, the EU summit and the Brazilian Real

  • 29 Feb @ 10:57

    The results of the ECB’s 3Y LTRO auction are reviewed by Simon Smith,
    Chief Economist

  • 28 Feb @ 09:56

    Simon Smith, Chief Economist on the ECB’s 3Y LTRO auction today, Greece and the yen

  • 27 Feb @ 13:33

    February is turning into the worst month for the Japanese currency for a very long time. At the start of February, USD/JPY was close a record low just above 76. Since then, yen selling has been constant, with USD/JPY reaching a high of 81.67 overnight, a rise of 7%. Tokyo will be delighted. On many…

  • 23 Feb @ 19:35

    The firmer than expected Ifo figures (and rumours of a strong number beforehand) proved to be the catalyst for the break above 1.33 on EUR/USD this morning, with the ground set overnight by a marginally weaker tone to the dollar. The jump in the expectations balance of the business survey (from 100.9 to 102.3) is…

  • 22 Feb @ 10:41

    Simon Smith, Chief Economist discusses why the yen and sterling are weaker, the hurdles ahead for Greece and why hopes should not be pinned on the next lot of cash from the ECB.

  • 21 Feb @ 12:48

    The study of specific factors, such as wars, discoveries, and changes in government policy, influence the supply and demand, and are therefore taken into account by the markets. Fundamental analysis involves the examination of macroeconomic indicators, markets, investments and political considerations in assessing the currency of a country and comparing it to others. Macroeconomic indicators…

  • 21 Feb @ 11:49

    Michael Derks, Chief Strategist, looks at the the Greek bailout deal that was approved by the Eurogroup early this morning