Last week’s warning from the International Energy Agency (IEA) that the surging cost of oil now represented a bigger risk for global growth than the European sovereign debt and banking crisis did not generate the publicity it deserved. Brent crude has jumped by 17% this year to USD 126 a barrel, essentially matching the high…

Behind the small downward revision to Q4 GDP in the UK (from -0.2% to -0.3%) is the picture of a household sector still under immense pressure from both modest income growth and rising inflation. Real disposable incomes fell 0.2%, having fallen in five of the past eight quarters. Real disposable incomes per head are now…

Ahead of next Tuesday’s RBA meeting, the slide in house prices witnessed over recent months is a further consideration for policy authorities. In both November and December, the RBA decided to lower the target cash rate by 25bp, now 4.25%. Another rate cut is widely expected. For the doves on the policy-making board, the fall…