US

  • 04 May @ 09:44

    Simon Smith, Chief Economist ends the week with a look at the euro,
    pressured by this week’s poor PMI data, the RBA’s cut to it’s growth
    and inflation forecaset and looks ahead to today’s US payrolls figures.

  • 02 May @ 07:42

    Genuinely positive stories on the economic front are relatively rare these days, with no fewer than ten of the EU’s 27 economies in recession and Australia’s central bank forced to cut rates by 50bp yesterday in part because the non-mining economy is contracting. Thankfully, both Germany and America continue to defy the global gloom. In…

  • 26 Apr @ 13:10

    Simon Smith, Chief Economist reviews the post-FOMC press conference and
    looks at global equituies and the rude health of the Candian dollar

  • 25 Apr @ 07:44

    In what can only be described as a remarkably candid assessment, China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology overnight claimed that both domestic and external conditions were still ‘grim’ and that the economy was likely to endure further downward pressure. Companies in China are confronting growing operational difficulties, including much higher prices for energy and…

  • 17 Apr @ 07:17

    Last month’s disappointing payrolls report aside, there is a growing body of evidence that the US recovery is looking both more durable and broad-based these days. For instance, JP Morgan Chase Chief Executive, Jamie Dimon, suggested on Friday when announcing his firm’s stellar quarterly earnings results, that the US housing market was “very close to…

  • 13 Apr @ 07:06

    The big question this morning for markets is whether to meet the latest Chinese GDP data with concern that it was lower than expected, or relief that the economy is slowing in an orderly fashion and will be supported by the largest increase in yuan-lending for a year. The initial reaction, as suggested by the…

  • 10 Apr @ 07:34

    In the wake of the US jobs numbers on Friday, which saw the dollar softer as QE3 talk was once again re-ignited, the dollar has continued south, although only modestly so, the dollar index down around a further 0.2% in the aftermath of the release. In sum, the weaker headline payrolls data should be put…

  • 04 Apr @ 11:34

    Michael Derks, Chief Strategist, reviews last night’s FOMC meeting Minutes, the dollar’s response and the anecdotral evidence of continued growth in the US economy

  • 04 Apr @ 11:34

    Michael Derks, Chief Strategist, reviews last night’s FOMC meeting Minutes, the dollar’s response and the anecdotral evidence of continued growth in the US economy

  • 03 Apr @ 10:22

    With Good news from the US, better news out of the UK, no rate cut by
    the RBA and plenty of US data to come, Michael Derks, Chief Strategist,
    sorts the wheat from the chaff

  • 03 Apr @ 10:22

    With good news from the US, better news out of the UK, no rate cut by the RBA and plenty of US data to come, Michael Derks, Chief Strategist, takes us through the issues of the day.

  • 03 Apr @ 07:18

    Against the backdrop of weaker demand both in Europe Asia, it is just as well that the world’s largest economy is showing some economic resolve. Indeed, it could be argued that the ability of the United States to demonstrate such resilience into the teeth of this global economic headwind is actually quite impressive. On a…

  • 02 Apr @ 10:36

    Michael Derks starts the week with a look at the poor PMI data out of Europe, the UK’s brighter news, Sterling’s reaction, breaking through the 1.60 level and a reminder of the US ISM data to come.

  • 30 Mar @ 15:29

    In the run-up to the end of the financial year, the Japanese currency has strengthened slightly. USD/JPY, which ten days ago was threatening the 84.0 level, fell below 82.0 for a time overnight. Part of the explanation for the turnaround lies with profit-repatriation flows by Japanese companies that frequently occur around this time of the…

  • 30 Mar @ 15:19

    Last week’s warning from the International Energy Agency (IEA) that the surging cost of oil now represented a bigger risk for global growth than the European sovereign debt and banking crisis did not generate the publicity it deserved. Brent crude has jumped by 17% this year to USD 126 a barrel, essentially matching the high…

  • 29 Mar @ 07:17

    Notwithstanding the general mood of optimism surrounding US recovery prospects, there is one recent development that needs to be watched closely. If the US economy is to reach a point whereby it becomes self-sustaining, then a critical ingredient will be decent growth in business investment. Since late summer, the pace of growth in private capital…

  • 23 Mar @ 08:53

    The US currency is only 0.5% below the opening level of the year, looking at the DXY dollar index and has been on a rising trend for most of the week. Whilst there are concerns with the turn in peripheral bond markets and the softer tone to equities this week, the FX markets have been…

  • 15 Mar @ 16:01

    One of the reasons why we are seeing such notable shifts in FX is the changing interest rate picture that has emerged this month. Just this week, US 2Y yields have risen from 0.30% to 0.40%, which in a near zero-rate world is a fairly significant move. We’ve seen a similar move in UK rates,…

  • 14 Mar @ 19:03

    Gold bulls are starting to shiver and shake, with the price down another 2% today to USD 1,643 an ounce. At the end of last month, it was close to USD 1,800; six months ago, it was touching USD 1,900. So, what is going wrong? Is this the end of the bull cycle, or simply…

  • 14 Mar @ 08:11

    The US Federal Reserve pulled off a difficult balancing act last night, sounding both more upbeat on the economy, but also keeping open the option of further easing measures and maintaining the commitment to keep rates low until the end of 2014. The expectation of growth was altered from “modest” to “moderate”, a seemingly small…