• 16 May @ 10:56

    Michael Derks, Chief Strategist, surveys the increasingly desloate
    Spanish,, Italian and Greek landscape, the flight to the dollar and the
    surprisingly low gold price.

  • 16 May @ 07:07

    News that ongoing talks amongst politicians in Greece have failed to come up with a coalition government and that new elections will need to be called, has triggered renewed fears that a Greek exit from the eurozone might not be too far away. In response, risk assets are again on the defensive with both traders…

  • 15 May @ 07:12

    Yet another bad hair day for risk assets yesterday amidst continuing concerns over a myriad of issues, including the unstable political situation in Greece and ongoing question marks around whether it will remain in the eurozone, the dire state of Spanish banking and sovereign finances, and a sense that the losses registered by the CIO…

  • 11 May @ 10:36

    Simon Smith, Chief Economist rounds off the week as the Spanish banking
    crisis and budget deficit announcement this afternoon pressure the euro.

  • 30 Apr @ 11:11

    It has been exceedingly gradual, but the dollar has been drifting downwards over the past two weeks. Not that we are talking about a big move mind you – the dollar index is down by roughly 1.5% over that time. That said, some of the major dollar crosses are at levels not witnessed for some…

  • 18 Apr @ 11:26

    Michael Derks, Chief Strategist, takes a look at the performance of
    sterling after the release of the MPC’s latest minutes, the euro and
    Spanish housing data and the softening yen.

  • 12 Apr @ 14:29

    Chief Strategist, Michael Derks, looks at the US and Australian dollar
    as well as recent and upcoming Chinese data

  • 05 Apr @ 07:24

    On a day when the robustness of the US recovery stood in sharp contrast to the continuing difficulties being experienced in Europe, it was little wonder that the dollar consolidated the gains witnessed the previous day in response to the hawkish FOMC Minutes. From the respectable ADP jobs figures to the decent auto sales numbers…

  • 03 Apr @ 10:22

    With good news from the US, better news out of the UK, no rate cut by the RBA and plenty of US data to come, Michael Derks, Chief Strategist, takes us through the issues of the day.

  • 03 Apr @ 10:22

    With Good news from the US, better news out of the UK, no rate cut by
    the RBA and plenty of US data to come, Michael Derks, Chief Strategist,
    sorts the wheat from the chaff

  • 30 Mar @ 15:29

    In the run-up to the end of the financial year, the Japanese currency has strengthened slightly. USD/JPY, which ten days ago was threatening the 84.0 level, fell below 82.0 for a time overnight. Part of the explanation for the turnaround lies with profit-repatriation flows by Japanese companies that frequently occur around this time of the…

  • 30 Mar @ 15:19

    Last week’s warning from the International Energy Agency (IEA) that the surging cost of oil now represented a bigger risk for global growth than the European sovereign debt and banking crisis did not generate the publicity it deserved. Brent crude has jumped by 17% this year to USD 126 a barrel, essentially matching the high…

  • 27 Mar @ 06:45

    Yesterday’s remarks by Fed Chairman Bernanke have put paid to the recent hypothesis that the Fed might be reversing its commitment to an extended period of ultra-loose monetary policy any time soon. His suggestion that wages growth remains subdued because of the weak labour market scuppered speculation that the Fed might need to start raising…

  • 26 Mar @ 13:28

    Although two regional Fed presidents have recently warned of the risks of maintaining an ultra-easy monetary policy for too long, it is extremely unlikely that Fed policy officials will alter their commitment to unchanged rates (for the next two years) any time soon. At their last meeting on March 13th, policy-makers at the Fed slightly…

  • 22 Mar @ 14:16

    There can be little question that the cycle has turned for the Aussie. In 2009 and 2010, it seemed as though the Australian currency could do no wrong. Last year, the AUD still attracted a great deal of buying interest from multiple sources, especially those who were concerned by the deliberate debasement of the major…

  • 19 Mar @ 08:08

    Friday was a remarkably dim day for the dollar, and yet apart from ‘flows’ it was no easy task to pinpoint an exact trigger for it. During the early afternoon there were some large sell orders for the greenback, especially against the euro – the single currency almost touched 1.32 at one point, after declining…

  • 16 Mar @ 21:48

    One of the real stand-outs so far this month has been Brazil, for a number of reasons that we’ve talked about before. The real is down nearly 5% (vs. the USD) in March, but there have been signs of stabilisation in the latter half of this week. Comments overnight (Bloomberg), citing unnamed government officials, suggested…

  • 15 Mar @ 15:51

    Notwithstanding the general mood of optimism apparent in risk assets these days, there is a growing school of considered opinion which believes that China is heading directly for a hard landing. Complicating the compilation of evidence to support this view is the fact that the Lunar New Year holidays were earlier than usual this year,…

  • 14 Mar @ 19:14

    We’ve seen a stark shift in FX markets so far this month, a telling indication of both valuations and risk appetite. That Greece has avoided default, the ECB has thrown more 3Y money into the pot and the US has continued to put in solid performances has had a notable effect on markets. Yesterday the…

  • 14 Mar @ 19:07

    Whilst the traditional risk currencies are getting a beating this month, it’s notable that sterling has been holding up well. We noted some of the better data being recorded on the domestic economy yesterday (‘Green shoots in the UK’), but this does not help explain the resilience being seen today given that the labour market…